A Parametric Model of Elliptic Orbits for Annual Evolutions of Northern Hemisphere Stratospheric Polar Vortex and Their Interannual Variability

The year-to-year varying annual evolutions of the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) have an important downward impact on weather and climate from winter to summer thus potential implications for seasonal forecasts. This study constructs a parametric elliptic orbit model capturing mass-weighted zonal momentum at 60° N (MU) total air mass above isentropic surface 400 K (M) over latitude band 60–90° 1 July 1979 30 June 2021. naturally connects two time series nonlinear oscillator. As result, observed coupling relationship between MU M associated with SPV as well its interannual variations can be reconstructed by limited number parameters model. findings this may pave new way short-time forecasts SPV, including temporal seasons spring fall seasons, timings sudden warming events constructing in advance.